Communication Research

Causal Layered Analysis of the Population Growth in Iran and its Media Approaches

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Saeid Alavivafa

Strategic Management, Supreme National Defense Uni., Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22082/cr.2020.123539.2019
Abstract
The issue of population and its dimensions is the central point of any social and media system. Trends and demographic changes in Iran show that in the near future, it is possible the society will face many problems due to aging and reaching people to the old year. This article study the causal layered of key factors, underlying reasons and approaches affecting population growth and their prioritization and categorization from a media perspective. This research is applied-exploratory in terms of purpose and its method is descriptive-survey. The reliability and validity of the questionnaire were confirmed by experts and Cronbach's alpha (0.801). Based on comprehensive studies, expert panel meetings and semi-structured questionnaires, variables affecting the growth of young and dynamic population and media approaches identified and prioritized. Then the factor relationships and action were identified and prioritized using statistical analysis tests of Pearson correlation and Friedman variance. The results showed that achieving fertility rates above the level of generational succession is the most important strategic indicator for young and dynamic population growth. And 10 key factors: "not getting married", "getting married late", "delaying remarriage", "avoiding to have children at the substitution level", "divorce", "abortion", "infertility", "health pregnancy pattern", "Premature deaths" and "migration", along with 40 underlying causes, are most influential. Finally, media approaches were identified and developed by identifying 13 effective actors and 14 lines of action and planning themes for achieving population growth in Iran.

Keywords

Population Growth
Overall fertility Rate
Succession Level
Media Approach
Key Factors and Backgrounds
Subjects
Abbasi Shavazi, M. J. & Askari Nadoushan, A. (2005). Family Change And Fertility Decline In Iran. Journal Of Social Sciences, 25 (11), 35-75.
Dorjani, M. (2018). Report By Oxford Analytica Institute, International Broadcasting Service Of IRIB. Retrieved From: IRIB News Agency.
Expediency Discernment Council. (2019). The Monitoring Implementation Report On General Population Policies. Supervision Commission. Tehran: Specialized Secretariat For Supervision.
Future Study Of Fara. (2018). Macro Trends Facing The World And Its Population. Tehran: Institute Of Future Study Of Fara.
Helm Seresht, P. & Delpisheh, E. (2009). Population And Family Planning. Tehran: Chehr Pub.
Hosseini, H. (2015). Conflicting Situations And The Issue Of Population Policy Making In Iran. Journal Of Population, 93 (23), 16-45.
Kazemipour, Sh. (2009). Basic Methods Of Population Analysis. Tehran: Payame Noor University Press.
Khamenei, S. A. (2014). Speeches. Reterived From Supreme Leader Website.
Khamenei, S. A. (2019). Speeches. Reterived From Supreme Leader Website.
Mahmoudi, M. J. (2013). Demographic Change, Challenges Ahead And The Need To Revise Iran's Demographic Policies. Journal Of Bardasht Dovom, 15 (6), 11-12.
Mahmoudi, M. J.; Ishaqi, M. & Shojaei, J. (2018). Demographic Indicators And The Latest Status Of Population Policies. Tehran: Publications Of The Secretariat Of The Supreme Council Of The Cultural Revolution. Secretariat Report Of Supreme Council Of The Cultural Revolution.
Mehzoon, A. A. (2019). The Monitoring Performance On General Population Policies. Tehran: Supreme Council Of The Cultural Revolution Report.
National Institute Of Health Researches Of Iran. (2019). Fertility Rate In Iran, University Of Medical Sciences Of Ministry Of Health And Medical Education. Reterived From Www.Nihr.Tums.Ac.Ir
National Organization For Civil Registration. (2018). Statistical Report And Divorce Trend In Iran. Tehran: National Organization For Civil Registration.
Ojagh, S. Z. & Abbasi Shavaz, M. J. (2019). Iranian Demographic Discourses: Policy And Media Reproduction. Journal Of Majlis And Rahbord, 97 (26), 55-83.
Ojagh, Z. & Abbasishavazi, M. J. (2018). Discourse Analysis Of Mediatized Pronatalist Policies: Suggesting A Promotion Strategy. Journal Of Population Association Of Iran, 25 (13), 133-164.
Planning And Budget Organization. (2014). Documents Of The Fifth And Sixth Economic, Social And Cultural Development Plans Of The Islamic Republic Of Iran. Report On Past And Current Trends And Ten-Year Forecast Of Iran's Population.
Pressat, R. (2016). The Dictionary Of Demography [Dictionnaire De Démographie] (Iranian Statistical Research And Training Center Trans.). Tehran: Iranian Statistical Research And Training Center.
Samieinasab, M. & Torabi, M. (2010). Indicators And Population Policies In Iran. Journal Of Bardasht Dovom Pub.
Saraei, H. (2015). Population Reproduction Of Iran: Current Status And Some Policy Considerations. Journal Of Social Sciences, 68.
Statistical Centre Of Iran. (2018). Detailed Data Of The General Census Of Years 2006, 2011 & 2016. Reterived From The Website Of Statistical Centre Of Iran.
Statistical Yearbook Of The Country. (2019). Statistical Centre Of Iran. Tehran: Reterived From Website Of Statistical Centre Of Iran.
Supreme Council Of The Cultural Revolution. (2012). A Comparative Study Of Financial And Supportive Incentives In Iran And Other Countries To Increase Population Growth. Reterived From Website Of Supreme Council Of The Cultural Revolution.
Taghavi, N. (1999). The Basics Of Sociology. Tabriz: Jameae Pajouh Va Denial Pub.

  • Receive Date 25 March 2020
  • Revise Date 11 May 2020
  • Accept Date 31 December 2020

Home

Guide for Authors

Submit Manuscript

Contact Us

Flow diagram (process) of judging received articles