The present research aims to identify and analyze the key drivers shaping the future of Iran's digital media over a ten-year horizon (2026–2031), employing a cross-impact analysis approach. In terms of objective, this study is applied, and in terms of nature, it is descriptive-analytical, classified as a future-oriented survey. The participant pool consisted of 17 academic experts and specialists who were purposefully selected.Data collection was carried out in three stages: first, through a systematic review of the research literature from 2016 to 2025, 29 primary drivers were identified across six groups. In the next step, these drivers were prioritized using a Delphi questionnaire, resulting in the selection of 14 influential drivers. Finally, a (14×14) cross-impact matrix was completed by the experts and analyzed using MicMac software. Based on this analysis, four drivers"governance of recommendation algorithms based on audience consumption baskets," "expansion of high-speed internet," "advancement of artificial intelligence in content," and "Iran's media regulatory policies"were identified as the most influential and determining factors for the future of digital media.

The research findings indicate that the overarching framework of regulatory policies and the management of recommendation algorithms play a strategic and fundamental role in directing the future of Iran's digital media. These drivers are recognized as leverage points for effective intervention, where small changes in them can have significant impacts on the entire system. Therefore, it is recommended that media policymakers and planners focus on algorithmic transparency, empowering domestic content producers, investing in indigenous AI, and redesigning regulatory policies