Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 Research Fellow in National Research Institute for Science Policy. Futures Studies Postdoctoral Researcher,Tehran Uni., Iran
2 Future Study, Tehran Uni., Iran
3 Media Management, Tehran Uni., Iran
Abstract
Scenario planning is a systematic and methodical process that enables individuals and organizations to plan and make decisions in complex and uncertain spaces. The present study was conducted to identify the Upcoming Opportunities of the TV in the field of entertainment programs by usnigg this method. Entertainment plays a very important role in attracting the audience, culturalization and also generating income for the media and companies. In this study, first the drivers and key components of the system were extracted using the Schwartz model. Then, the scenario wizard software was used for structural analysis and to examine how the uncertainties affect each other and then extract the scenario opportunities. After that, 3 compatible and probable scenarios related to the future of entertainment on TV- including the protective scenario, the adopting scenario and the evolution scenario - were extracted and described. Finally, after presenting each scenario, strategic advice on the future of television entertainment is provided to relevant managers and policymakers by summarizing the findings in the expert panels.
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