Communication Research

Future Scenarios of Audio Media in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Mehdi Mirmzaheri 1
Hasan Khojasteh B. 2
Mohammad Rahim Eivazi 3

1 Future Study Management

2 Full Prof. Radio Department, Radio and Television Production Faculty, IRIB University, Tehran, Iran

3 Full Prof. In Future Study, Faculty of Governance, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22082/cr.2024.2014753.2618
Abstract
Audio media is one of the basic components of countrys' media sphere. In the future, this media sphere and, accordingly, the audio media, will be exposed to many uncertainties and ambiguities related to technological developments and cultural, social, political and economic changes. The goal of future research is to clarify the future and increase human knowledge and understanding of it. This research has been carried out with the aim of compiling the future scenario of audio media. The research was conducted based on the theory of media convergence using scenario planning method. The sample size was selected purposefully and the results were obtained based on categories extracted from documentary studies, theoretical foundations and field study. Based on the findings of the research, 81 factors and components were identified from the analysis of the environment; Also, 17 effective drivers and 6 key uncertainties were identified after examining discussion. The ranking of these factors was done according to the opinion of experts, based on the two criteria of "importance" and "uncertainty", and based on the two key uncertainties with the highest weight, i.e. "technology" and "volume of audio content consumption", the matrix of scenarios was formed and Four scenarios of "Smart Radio", "I am the user", "Mr. Broadcaster" and "Coexistence with technology" were developed. The results showed that the smart radio scenario can be considered as a favorable scenario. At the end, according to each identified scenario, practical solutions are presented that will help the effective policy makers and decision makers of IRIB radio.

Keywords

Future Research
Radio
Media
Audio Media
Scenario
Subjects
Adelian, N. (2022). Typology of the Audience of IRIB Radio (2011-2021). Tehran: Polling And Research Center Of IRIB.
Akbari Azad, M.; Gyvyan, A. & Minavand, M. (2009). Examining Podcasting's Opportunities and Threats for Radio In Iran in Communications Experts’ View. Journal of Communication Research, 15 (59).
Akhgari, M. (2017). Radio in the Second Era: The Perspective of Radio Production and Broadcasting in The Age of New Media. Tehran: IRIB Pub.
Albarzi Dawati, H. & Kohi Esfahani, A. (2018). Future Studies of Media. Tehran: Works of Thought.
Amini, J. et al. (2023). Current Status of the Podcast Industry in Iran. Tehran: Rastak.
Darabi, M. & Ghorbani, M. M. (2021). Status of Future Media with Emphasis on Provincial Media. The 18th National Summit of Broadcasting Media Technology of The Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran.
Farhangi, A. A. & Abtahi, A. (2011). The Future of Radio & Future Radio. Journal of Radio, 60, 128-147.
Hosseini, M.; Aqili, S. V. & Mahdizadeh, S. M. (2009). Emergence of Digital Radio in Iran: Opportunities and Threats. Journal of Communication Research, 59.
Merriam, S. B. & Tisdell, E. (2019). Qualitative Research: A Guide to Design and Implementation (Kiamanesh, A. & Danaye Toosi, M. Trans.). Tehran: SAMT Pub. (Original Work Published 2016).
Mohsenian-Rad, M. (2020). Media Studies. Tehran: Organization for Studying and Compiling Humanities Books of Universities (SAMT) and Research Center for Research and Development of Humanities.
Moulai, M. M.; Malamousizadeh, H. & Hasanpour, H. (2018). Future Scenarios of Radio in Virtual Space. The 14th International Radio Festival and the 6th World Audio Summit, Tehran.
Pedram, A. & Zali, S. (2018). A New Framework for Scenario Development to Strategic Issues; A Case-Study of Syria Crisis` Future Scenarios. Journal of Political Studies of Islamic World, 26.
Schwartz, P. (2009). The art of The Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain Word (Alizadeh, A. Trans.). Tehran: Defense Industries Educational and Research Institute. (Original Work Published 1996).
Shamsainia, S. & Ismailnejad, M. (2018). Convergence of Radio and New Media; Case: IRIB. Journal of News Science, 29.

  • Receive Date 31 October 2023
  • Revise Date 12 February 2024
  • Accept Date 27 February 2024

Home

Guide for Authors

Submit Manuscript

Contact Us

Flow diagram (process) of judging received articles