Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 radio research manager
2 radio/radio&Tv ,
3 .
Abstract
Audio media is one of the basic components of a country's media sphere. This media sphere and consequently audio media are exposed to many ambiguities and uncertainties in the future in connection with technological developments and cultural, social, political, and economic changes. The current research was carried out with the aim of compiling the future scenario of audio media. This research is based on the theory of convergence of media and has been carried out with the method of scenario planning. The sample size was purposefully selected based on the categories extracted from documentary studies, theoretical foundations and field study of the results. Based on the research findings, environmental analysis led to the identification of 81 factors and components. After discussion, 17 effective drivers and 6 key uncertainties were identified. The ranking of these factors was done with the opinion of experts, based on the two criteria of "importance" and "uncertainty". Based on two key uncertainties with the highest weight, i.e. "technology" and "volume of audio content consumption", the matrix of scenarios was formed and four scenarios were written: "Smart radio", "I am the user", "Mr. Broadcaster" and "Coexistence with technology". became. At the end, solutions were proposed for each scenario with the opinion of experts. The research results show that the smart radio scenario is a preferable scenario. At the end, according to each identified scenario, practical solutions were presented; This will help policy makers and effective decision makers of the audio of the Islamic Republic.
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